For the non-football fans, and the couple dozen of you who didn’t see the 2009 movie of the same name, the “blind side” is the area behind a player — usually the quarterback — where he can’t see. While the quarterback is looking downfield for a receiver, he is especially vulnerable to being sacked or injured from the blind side. His teammates are supposed to make sure that doesn’t happen.

To see the blind side in action, pull up just about any 2021 video of Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields and watch what happens to the then-rookie player — over and over. Fortunately, he’s gotten better protection this season.

Of course, anyone or any industry could be blind-sided by developments they’re not watching for. Which brings me to the U.S. beef industry, and India.

The U.S. cattle cycle is well into a phase of contraction, as protracted drought and higher input costs have pushed cattle off of feedlots and into processing plants at a record pace. The glut of animals notably has included the highest numbers of cows and heifers in 30 years, points out Oklahoma State marketing specialist Derrell Peel, meaning there will be fewer females available to breed down the road. Tighter supply, higher prices and a fight to maintain margins among processors loom in 2023 and beyond.

On the global stage, the beef industry’s attention has tended to focus on the knock-on opportunities of the U.S. cattle contraction for beef powerhouses Australia and Brazil. However, keeping pace among the world’s largest exporters of beef is India.

India’s beef production is largely in the category of carabeef, or beef produced from water buffalo. It’s not as highly prized in Westernized countries as beef from cattle, but is popular throughout Asia and the Middle East, as well as Africa and Russia, in part because much of it is halal-certified and because it is less expensive. In 2022, India will export about 1.6 million metric tons of the stuff — a 9% increase over 2021, according to USDA — compared with about 1.5 million metric tons projected for U.S. beef exports this year.

To be sure, U.S. beef is highly prized for its flavor and quality, and is in demand in high-income, sophisticated markets like Japan and South Korea. Those markets are valuable, but not larger on a per-capita consumption basis than the markets demanding Indian carabeef. Over time, as well, the population growth in Asia and the Middle East will far outstrip their more developed counterparts, making them an attractive bet for the long-term.

Not that India doesn’t feed plenty of demand at home. USDA reports that the country’s 2022 carabeef and beef consumption is forecast at 2.9 million metric tons, representing a nearly 5% increase over last year’s estimate of about 2.8 million metric tons. India is widely expected to surpass China in 2023 as the world’s most populous country, with more than 1.4 billion people.

The U.S. beef industry counts every tick up or down in global market share as compared with Brazil and Australia. As food prices worldwide climb higher and the population in developing countries explodes, it can’t afford to turn a blind eye to India.

The Blind Side

Join for free* to continue reading.