Much has been reported on the increase in meat consumption that happens as poorer economies gain a foothold and wealth grows across the population. Thanks to a host of recent technological developments, we’ve watched the pattern repeat itself, across continents.

But what happens to meat consumption, and to eating patterns in general, when wealth across a population declines? Especially if the economy in question is a meat-loving culture with traditionally plenty of wealth.

According to “The Demographics of Wealth: 2018 Series,” an in-depth study conducted by the Center for Household Financial Stability (CFS) of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, families whose head of household was born in 1960 or later have yet to regain the economic footing (in terms of median wealth — a measure of net income and net worth) they had before the Great Recession began in 2008. By 2016 (the latest year for which data was available), 30 years’ worth of families, as measured by the head of household’s year of birth, were poorer in terms of assets and sometimes income than economists would have predicted before the recession began.

And the discrepancies increase as the age of the head of household decreases. CFS researchers calculated that families whose head of household was born in the 1980s had accumulated median wealth that was 34 percent below what pre-recession measures would have predicted.

Families whose head of household was born in the 1970s came up 18 percent short of predicted median wealth, and those born in the 1960s were 11 percent shy of projections.

Families with older heads of household, born in the 1930s, ‘40s and ‘50s, had regained their wealth, relative to projections. In many cases they had invested in the 1970s and ‘80s, particularly in real estate, and were hardly affected by the Great Recession’s worst indicators.

The extremely thorough analysis parses out the complicated economic factors that have undermined, and still are dragging on, successive generations’ wealth. An overly simplified explanation points to feeble home values and growing debt, particularly college debt, as major weaknesses in households’ balance sheet. Student loans play a larger part on the debt side of younger families, but for those families whose heads are in their 40s and 50s, the plunge in home values is a bigger issue. As well, those families have less time to make up the difference financially before their work lives run out of steam.

The wide range in demographics and multiple variables measured by the study makes it a more lasting indicator than are, say, monthly employment figures. It may be evidence of a “new normal” established by the 2008 financial crisis and following recession, and if so, it’s a poorer normal overall.

Happily for the meat industry, domestic consumption has been growing steadily since 2012 while exports have boomed. But when consumers start to feel poor, the sentiment shows up first in the grocery cart. Baby boomers and older consumers are moving into slow-growth categories simply by virtue of their life stage. If successive generations don’t feel they can afford to spend the way their parents did, the long-term implications for the meat category are also weak.

Meat consumption in a declining economy — ours

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