I’m a cynic.

I have long since given up expecting politicians to actually do what they said on the stump they were going to do. Keep in mind, of course, that I live in Chicago. Politics is a full-contact sport at both the local and state level, and an ugly one at that. (And if you ask me how that’s working out for us so far, I’d have to say — not so much.)

But once that oath of office is taken, I assume everything that came before is wiped away.

Then there’s President Trump. I may be willing to embrace post-campaign amnesia, but he isn’t. Those 2015 and 2016 promises are his road map for another three years and the administration’s marching orders. It won’t all get done, but not because he isn’t going to do his damnedest. A refreshing change of pace, but not necessarily welcome news for the meat industry.

As noted by the PolitiFact website, President Trump said he was going to greatly reduce the number of regulations that are on the books and put a conservative on the Supreme Court, and he’s done that. He said he would keep the Guantanamo Bay detention center open, and he’s done that, too. He said he was going to cancel the Paris Climate Agreement, and he has, over the objections and sharp criticisms of the international community. Candidate Trump promised he would withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and that is one of the first moves he made after his inauguration. He has other promises hanging out there related to trade, as well: using tariffs and fees to “balance” the balance of trade with other countries, for example, and renegotiate NAFTA. And these are, according to PolitiFact, “in the works.”

While a final decision on NAFTA, for example, is likely some time away yet, the mere fact that it’s “in the works” has stoked rising tensions from the Beltway to the Heartland. According to a recent report by Politico, Sen. Chuck Grassley has expressed concern to U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer over talk of a bailout of sorts for farmers, should the NAFTA agreement fall apart and reduce exports and cause market prices to plunge. Rather than help the ag sector out after the fact, the report says, Grassley just wants the administration to not make a mess of the markets in the first place.

But, according to a Politico source, no one in the current administration has done a hard analysis on the impact on the farm sector of withdrawal from NAFTA, KORUS or any other FTA.

President Trump also made several promises related to immigration reform. Beyond promising to deport illegal immigrants and to curb arrivals from Muslim and “terror-prone” places, he has said, “We will reform legal immigration to serve the best interests of America and its workers ... . We’re going to take care of our workers.”

This promise will only exacerbate meat plants’ long-standing difficulties attracting and retaining employees for the production line, unless companies can find a way to pay significantly more per hour and still turn a profit.

President Trump’s determination to follow through on his campaign promises is a surprise, to me at least, and refreshing. But the meat industry should be careful what he wishes for.

Promises, promises

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