For years I went to Girl Scout Camp Shawadasee in Michigan every summer, for as many weeks as my parents could afford to get me out of their hair(!). I learned to make it a point to sign up for the mid-summer session, when the whole camp put on Christmas in July — gifts, trees, carols, the whole shebang.

July benefits in general from being the first month of the second half of the year, a reboot, with a built-in pause at the beginning in the form of a national holiday. It's always felt like an opportunity to catch my breath and gather steam for the rest of the year. July is fun.

Oh, but 2020. This year, season, month is writing its own script. And for the record, I've never been a big fan of horror films. That my July began with a "bright" item from the morning news on human-sized bats in the Philippines seems like a precursor to a scary second half.

We knew recession was on its way back in March, when states and entire countries began shutting down to stop the spread of COVID-19. Now, efforts to restart businesses in the States and elsewhere is reigniting the spread of the virus. (In my family the toll is up to four, including a cousin in her 50s who should have had years left in her lifetime.) States like Texas and Florida, which are big American economic engines, are shutting back down. Stimulus-related payments to the half of the U.S. working population that were thrown out of their jobs are due to expire by month's end, with no big movement toward re-employment for millions.

The second half is going to bite.

Consumers have signaled that they are hunkering down, going for bulk packages of less expensive meat products. (210 Analytics' most recent analyses of retail sales are here and here.) Just as many processing lines pivoted to retail-ready products as foodservice channels were blocked, it's time to devote more production to grinds and sausages, and thinner, less expensive cuts. The R&D that has gone into creating value-added products that economized on time and plumped companies' bottom lines hasn't been wasted, but consumers in general have more time and less money — so, perhaps those recipes can be adapted to create more economical versions of those offerings.

A long, severe recession will have permanent implications for the meat supply chain: Consider that carcass weights of any species are bigger than ever, and how much of that supply already is being ground up instead of selling as whole muscle cuts. That's less profit overall working its way back up the supply chain, ultimately hitting farmers and ranchers who already have been put back on their financial heels.

A decade from now, the configuration of the meat supply chain from farm to fork will be different, with far fewer producers at the front end and more demand for meat from growing populations. The winners will be those companies and individuals who get out in front of those changes.

July 2020 will cheat us all out of our mid-year Christmas fun. But working together, we can be decorating the trees again in 2021, and for years after that.

Where's my Christmas in July?

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