Reviewing the recent national conference put on by the Humane Society of the United States, I’m reminded to give animal activists credit for one thing: persistence.

In my years of opposing their campaigns, I’ve learned their mentality is that they haven’t lost. It’s only that they haven’t won yet.

This attitude imparts a certain flexibility. If something isn’t working, they’ll try something else. With that in mind, consider their recent strategic moves.

The animal rights movement is facing a major challenge: Their entire legislative strategy for the past 15 years may soon get a stake through the heart. This fall, the Supreme Court will consider the constitutionality of California Proposition 12. The activists have focused on using large markets like California to ban the sale of conventionally produced animal protein

While speakers at the HSUS conference put on a brave face, many observers think the Court is likely to overturn the law.

Then what?

The activists are already preemptively pivoting.

First, they are increasing their corporate campaigns in the short term. If they can’t pass laws banning the sale of conventionally produced meat and eggs,they can get major corporations to put pressure on their suppliers to change their farm practices.

This approach has some utility, but it’s risky. Some companies may fight back, such as McDonald’s beating HSUS and Carl Icahn in May over a measure related to sow housing. And in the current bad economic times, asking companies to commit to higher-cost animal protein is a difficult request.

The activists know this, which is why they are making a bigger shift that will help with passing federal legislation.

They now seek to align more closely with the environmental movement. And herein lies a long-term threat to agriculture.

The environmental movement has more political power than the animal rights/liberation movement. The animal rights movement has been clever in using ballot measures to pass legislation, because they can paint a highly misleading and inflammatory picture of animal agriculture. But that option might get cut off at the Supreme Court.

However, allied with the environmental movement, they might pull it off (assuming the enviros don’t dismiss the wacko vegan element).

For example, consider what just happened in Congress.

President Biden’s approval rating is in the tank, the economy is rotten, Democrats have a razor-thin margin in the House and Senate, and the election is less than three months away. Typically that is a formula for caution.

And yet, Congress just rammed through a climate bill to help the environmental lobby. Billed the “Inflation Reduction Act,” the legislation gives massive subsidies for electric vehicles and checks other boxes on the environmental lobby’s wish list. That’s how much power the environmental lobby has.

What might federal legislation look like? Look at what’s happening in Europe.

In the Netherlands, farmers are up in arms over the government’s new climate policies. The country decided to halve its greenhouse gas emissions–nevermind that Holland is a tiny country compared to top polluter China. The Dutch climate targets are expected to cause a 30% reduction in livestock in the country.

Animal activists have long used economic weapons against the industry by trying to force costly infrastructure conversions. They can have the same effect through climate policies that tax methane emissions, for one example.

There is an attitude in the environmental movement that change must be forced upon others, damn the consequences. In their minds, they’ve been hearing the world could end due to climate change. (Never mind that bogus predictions have been made for 50 years in this field.)

So what if they have to put a few farmers out of work if it means they save Mother Earth?

This attitude leads to dangerous and extreme policies.

The news service Axios notes one reason the environmental lobby is winning where they failed in the past: “a large, diverse and determined social movement has formed around global climate action.” Concepts such as ESG (environment, social, governance) in corporate America solidify and legitimize this movement. ESG has been one of the primary drivers of investment in fake meat.

The same thing is happening with the animal rights movement. It’s just lagging behind the environmental lobby. But kids are getting animal rights messages in schools (thanks to efforts by PETA and other groups). Animal activists are targeting the next generation just as climate activists have done. They are building their political future. Remember, they just haven’t won —yet.

Today, the threat from animal activism may feel low, especially if the Supreme Court overturns Prop 12. But make no mistake. We’re in a never-ending war with the activists. If we win on one front, they’ll simply open a new one. They’re playing the long game.

What the activists are up to

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