At about this same time in May 2019, I sat down and authored by 186th blog for Meatingplace. The blog was titled, “Why are there SO many food recalls?” At that point, in May 2019, there had already been 171 reported recalls of USDA- and FDA-regulated product, which put industry on an anticipated trajectory of about 684 food product recalls for the year. Fortunately, industry missed the mark slightly, scoring a total of only 645 recalls by the time December 31, 2019 rolled along. With that said, it was still a lot of recalls.

So far, in 2022, the numbers have been relatively docile. So far this year, there have only been 140 recalls of USDA and FDA- regulated products. If the 2022 trajectory holds firm, that would put us at a total of about 420 recalls by the end of the year. This would be the same number of recalls as announced in 2020, and (in the absence of the extreme COVID mandates visited upon industry in 2020) would represent a stellar improvement when compared to 2019 (645 recalls), 2020 (420 recalls) and 2021 (519 recalls).

Most notable is the five-year trend of recalls of USDA-regulated products. In 2018, there were 125 recalls of USDA-regulated products. In 2019, there were 124. In 2020, however, there were only 32 recalls of USDA-regulated products. In 2021, there were only 45, and so far this year, there have only been 12. This means that 2020 may represent the third year in a row where there have been fewer than 50 recalls of USDA-regulated products.

Indeed, in an industry where pathogens like E. coli O157:H7 historically have kept plant managers up at night, the numbers of recalls of animal products for the presence of suspected pathogens has dropped to historically low numbers. In 2018, there were 53 recalls for pathogens in USDA-regulated products. By contrast, in 2020, there was only one. There were only 12 in 2021 and, so far this year, there have only been two. That would put industry on a trajectory of only six by the end of the year. These are impressive numbers, and industry should be applauded if these trends hold.

Interestingly, with COVID increasingly in the rear-view mirror, we have been predicting since late last year that we expected to see the number of total recalls in 2022 to increase this year to numbers approaching the totals we saw in 2018 and 2019 — which would be north of 600. Instead, the early data is suggesting that the lows achieved in 2020 and 2021 may be sustainable. While the emergence of new and novel COVID strains late last year and early this year may have impacted the total number of recalls, we’re not convinced that recent COVID mandates are enough to account for the depressed numbers we continue to see.

Thus, moving forward, the message for industry is simple and straightforward: Keep up the fabulous work. Industry is producing more — and recalling less — food products than ever before. The winner is both the consumer and the food companies keeping them fed.

So, congrats are in order for a great start to what we hope will be a great year!

Recalling the past and predicting the future

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