As COVID entered and then changed our world, the numbers of total food product recalls decreased substantially. From historical highs of about 700 recalls in 2018 and 2019, the numbers dropped to lows hovering closer to 400 in 2020 and 2021. As we settle firmly into 2022, we predict the numbers of recalls this year will increase substantially.

So, what will be the main drivers of recalls in 2022? Based upon current trends in the industry, as well as an assessment of historical trends, we can make some predictions about where the highest risk areas lie. It’s no secret that the top three causes of recalls overall are pathogens, undeclared allergens and foreign materials. All three will likely continue to be major influencers. And, we predict that they will continue to drive the total numbers of future recalls even higher.

In the category of pathogens, companies will continue to struggle with recalls because of the presence of harmful pathogens. Moving forward, FSIS will continue to be less tolerant of Salmonella in ground meat and poultry products. On the FDA side, more frequent inspections, increased numbers of swab-a-thons, ever-expanding definitions of “ready-to-eat,” and zero tolerance for Listeria will continue to lead to high numbers of recalls. Additionally, the persistence of Listeria in food processing environments will continue to intermittently contaminate large amounts of products over large periods of time. Of all the recalls of pathogens over the last year, more than half involve products produced over extended periods of time.

Each year, undeclared allergens continue to compete with pathogens as a leading cause of food product recalls. Unfortunately, industry continues to struggle with the control of allergens for a wide variety of reasons. As a result, FDA and FSIS will likely continue to look for ways (i.e., during inspections) to look for weaknesses and incentivize companies to invest more resources in the control of allergens. Unfortunately, even when a company is doing everything right, a single mistake from a single ingredient supplier can lead to a massive food product recall.

Foreign materials will also continue to be a leading cause of recalls. Increasingly, in response to increasing consumer demand, companies continue to push the limits of employees and infrastructure to produce larger volumes. In many cases, food production infrastructure and equipment is not being properly maintained or is being “run to failure.”

Separately, technologies such as magnets and metal detection can only identify so many types and sizes of foreign materials. As a result, more and more companies are moving toward X-ray and other scanning technologies. The move by more companies further down the supply stream to newer and more capable technologies will result in more recalls of more products containing foreign materials that evaded detection earlier in the supply stream. The net result is that, eventually, the entire industry will be forced to move to these new technologies.

Thus, the risk of recalls is increasing. As we move deeper into 2022, your next recall may be waiting just around the next corner. Continue to be self-critical and self-audit, looking for practices or patterns that could ultimately lead to an unexpected recall.

What will be the biggest drivers of recalls in 2022?

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