One of the most interesting experiences of my 13 or so years here at Meatingplace was traveling to China in 2014 to visit WH Group assets in the countryside shortly after that company acquired Smithfield Foods. I also attended the World Meat Congress in Beijing during the weeklong trip.

My access to WH Group’s facilities, including hog slaughter, fabrication, processing and packaging, was as generous as it was uncommon, I thought. Their hospitality was, as well. In fact, it was almost over the top (quick travel tip: when attending a business meal in China, be prepared to drink a shot of rice liquor to any of the hundreds of cockamamie toasts your hosts can conjure).

The warm reception and productive visit, to some extent, made me feel a bit silly. Like other Americans that grew up with a cynical view of big, bad China and other communist states, I had my concerns. Chief among them at the time, actually, was cyber-security. I remember religiously folding up my laptop, after continuously forgetting that Google searches and social media use were impossible under Beijing’s restrictions, and stowing it in the safe in my hotel, however futile that strategy might have been.

My cyber-security concerns seem far sillier today, when China’s lax biosecurity control is rearing its head in such an enormous and ugly way. Now add the coronavirus that is killing hundreds of people to the African swine fever outbreak that has killed half of the nation’s hog herd. Not to mention the country’s persistent avian influenza issues.

(China’s problems are among those referenced in “Pandemic: How to Prevent an Outbreak,” a new Netflix series whose main message is that the next big pandemic — like the Spanish flu outbreak in 1918 that killed upwards of 100 million people around the world — isn’t a matter of "if" but "when," and when is more than likely soon. Watch it. It’s alarming, and you’ll understand if you didn’t already why biosecurity preparations are so critical.)

Countries now are taking some extreme steps to stop the spread of coronavirus, but China has admitted to “shortcomings” in its response and has asked for help from Americans and others on a World Health Organization team. Analysts watching the African swine fever know all too well the deficiencies, among which is the country’s vast and fragmented production system. It includes too many small operations that lack sophistication in biosecurity.

“The constraint to date has been [the Chinese government’s] unwillingness to crack down on small and mid-size operators that don’t have high-level biosecurity,” Rabobank’s Christine McCracken told me in an interview for an in-depth article on China’s ASF issues that you’ll see in this month’s issue of Meatingplace magazine. “African swine fever is a challenging virus to control even for the largest operators. Financial incentives to produce are so high right now that even operations without adequate protection are restocking to make a quick profit. By not following accepted protocols, it continues the cycle and prolongs the recovery. But they’ve got to feed the people and the people want pork, so it’s a balance.”

It’s a balance, too, for exporters now lining up the cargo boats to cash in on China’s giant animal protein shortage. It’s a beehive that will produce honey for the near term, but could sting later on if a government that prioritizes self-sufficiency and power stances more than the health of its citizens shuts off to foreign imports.

So it’s a question for meat companies, as McCracken also noted, of how much inventory do they commit to this volatile market and for how long, and how much do they alternatively choose to diversify in other markets for the longer haul.

After all, there is such a thing as too much. On my trip back in 2014, I remember leaning over to my translator at one point and asking if he could make all the toasting stop.

Today more than ever I’d say, when sitting at the Chinese business table, don’t drink too much of the rice liquor.

China's sick

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