Strong demand and lower production costs indicate that the global poultry market is on the upswing in terms of growth, according to a new Rabobank analysis.

Following several years of slow growth related to consumption, the poultry market is in a “strong price position against other proteins in most markets” as strong retail demand and recovering demand in foodservice are both supporting rapid growth, Rabobank senior analyst for animal protein Nan-Dirk Mulder noted in the report. Overall poultry trade is expected to remain robust in the second half of 2024 with most international markets maintaining strength and balance, increasing the demand for chicken imports, he said. Poultry consumption growth is forecast to reach 2.5% to 3% for 2024, marking a return to historic levels, the report noted.

Amid the anticipated upswing, China and Japan continue to suffer from local poultry oversupply, which led to “large year-over-year declines in raw chicken imports in the first half of 2024,” according to the Rabobank report. Additionally, Middle East tensions and the resulting rerouting of trade through South Africa are causing longer transport times and higher costs in the import markets in Europe and Asia. The report adds that the threat of avian influenza remains a challenge for the poultry industry, though the European Union in 2024 posted the slowest pace of outbreaks since 2019. The report warns that poultry supply growth discipline will be important to keep operating under balanced market conditions in light of ongoing high risks that could negatively affect global trade flows.

Bullish global outlook for poultry despite some concerns: Rabobank

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