If you’re like me, you’ve been following Anne-Marie Roerink’s weekly updates on the meat retail markets since the beginning of the pandemic. We’ve consistently seen double-digit growth in meat sales until the week ending 8.30.2020. Yes, this week went up against Labor Day week 2019, but with the almost 15% decline in dollars, I couldn’t help but wonder — is protein demand starting to wane six months into the pandemic?

Naturally, I visited Google trends to see if consumer searching for meat recipes had seen a similar decline in frequency as meat sales. From the graph below, you can see that during the height of the pandemic (and during the time when we saw the biggest gains in growth percentage) toward the end of March through end of April, we reached peak interest in meat recipes. Conversely, we’ve seen through the month of August and the end of this graph (Sept. 12) that it’s pretty much returned to the same level of interest as prior year. This isn’t a great sign for non-holiday weeks to come, although I know Anne-Marie’s report for this week is positive, detailing results from Labor Day this year compared to what she calls "everyday demand" from last year.

Here’s what I know (and what I’ve seen)

Grocery stores have continued to be stocked with abundant meat and poultry options. I haven’t had trouble getting any of the cuts that I wanted to have since mid-end of April during the height of plant shutdowns. All around the country, most of us have settled into what the new school year looks like for our families. For me that’s continuing to balance working from home with a toddler and having a school-ager at home doing remote learning; this equates to continued increase in meals at home (including most certainly meat). Even for those families whose children have returned to school in-person, I’m hearing that not many school cafeterias are open, so many families are having to pack their own school lunches (i.e.: continued increase in grocery budget). The one sign I can see for decreased purchases is that college kids have returned to campus, and thus maybe there is a declining need for additional grocery items and protein specifically in the home.

Over the next few weeks we’ll see where the meat industry lands with the major summer grilling holidays now over. But, if consumer driven search is an indication of future sales (which it is), then I would say we had better get to work and not forget about marketing and promotions. I’ve seen grocery retail increase the meat features over the past week, and I hope that continues into the next few weeks as families return to a more normal weeknight routine. If we want this demand and therefore sales to stick around post-pandemic, we had better not forget about the basics.

The Meat Industry: Pandemic Proof?

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