Production workers were indentured chattel to be bought, used up and unceremoniously discarded. That was the prevailing “ethic” of the meat industry’s dominant powers during the early 1900s that gave rise to Upton Sinclair’s surreptitiously researched book, “The Jungle,” which precipitated a desperately needed restructuring in government oversight of the beef industry while its workers vainly and ingloriously searched for a Socialist nirvana as portrayed by rabid proselytizers. Thankfully, the former came to fruition; the latter did not.

Is the fabric of the meat industry now being rent again by plant-based faux meat, internecine wars amongst its participants, nutritionists lamenting the “scourge” of a meat-based diet, climate activists decrying cattle methane belches exacerbating global warming, generic marketing and sales programs and taxpayer-funded payouts to smaller industry participants to “level” the competitive playing field thereby curbing the concentrated power of the industry giants?

It is my belief that each of these trends can be positively harnessed by and for a resurgent beef industry, but how? It will take industry recognition that, while consumers want great taste and nutrition, they are evolving to also want the ancillary benefits of environmental stewardship and all that concept entails. Creativity in its response will be the hallmark of a resurgent beef industry.

Aside from its treatise on socialism. Sinclair’s book condemned the meat industry’s horrible production conditions and unconscionable immigrant worker treatment. But it couldn’t belie the fact that consumers wanted meat. In response, the meat industry, as horrible as it then was, abided by that fundamental marketing maxim, “give your customers what they want.” But production methods had to change. Of that, there was no question.

Meat consumption rose unabatedly during the intervening years until the chicken industry integrated and began to advertise in the late 1970s. In the face of that, the beef industry attempted to spur sales with a checkoff funded campaign on what was for dinner — beef. However, beginning in 1976, beef per capita consumption began a decline from 89 pounds to roughly 56 pounds today. (Source: USDA, NASS)

Certainly, there are more people in the U.S. now as the population increased from 218.04 million in 1976 to 332.54 million in March of this year. However, the 114.5 million population increase did not make up for the 33-lb. decrease in individual beef consumption. If those consuming few are also dwindling in numbers, that will mean fewer future consumers, a recipe for industry decline.

Even with per-person consumption declines, however, beef demand, which is a measure of consumption coupled with price, has recently begun to tick upward, according to the Monthly Meat Demand Index from Glynn Tonsor of Kansas State University, which is partially funded by the beef checkoff. The index base year was 1988 with a value of 100. The January 2022 index was 91.84 for all fresh beef. While that may seem to be a decline from a base of 100, it is actually a year over year increase from the pandemic year of 2020. And, that is good news. Can we build on it? Yes!

For the same index period, retail pork demand remained relatively flat, but retail chicken demand increased to an index of 162.02, continuing its dramatic rise.

The early 20th century baronial beasts of beef and pork, Armour and Swift, unconscionably desecrated humans and animals in their thirst for profit that rightfully drew scrutiny and reform. But the meat industry overcame this parochial greediness of 100 years ago and henceforth, while heavily scrutinized and unionized, built a thriving if still centralized business with some of the same few players, albeit with different names.

Like the proverbial phoenix rising from the ashes of its predecessor, if the meat industry could rise from its self-centered worst in the early 1900s, it most certainly can do so now by concentrating on positively marketing branded beef.

To so rise, however, the industry is going to have to recognize that consumers have changed and will change even more in the future. Consumer concerns about climate change and nutrition have become paramount and in recognition, the industry’s production and marketing methods must evolve to meet these new and vibrant consumer desires if beef demand increases are to continue.

Spurring a phoenix-like rise in beef demand

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