In the flush of record high prices for nearly every part of the cattle/beef continuum, optimism abounds, but a sobering look at just how many cattle will be available for future slaughter throws a wet blanket over it all.

Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Specialist in his article, “Three questions for cattle herd rebuilding,” paints a grim picture of beef availability for the next two or three years compared to the recent past.

As we all know, the size of the cow herd is a pretty reliable predictor for the future of available beef for human consumption. It takes 26 months or so from the time you mate a bull with a cow to get a steak. Lots of things can happen in that time.

According to Peel, the beef cow herd is not just the smallest since 1962 but it is continuing to decrease throughout 2023 and will be smaller yet going into 2024. By 2025, beef production is forecast to be down 15% to 16% from the 2022 level. Because of drought-forced herd liquidation, beef production was high in 2022. More cattle, cows, heifers were slaughtered, causing a total reduction in herd size with less to breed and slaughter in the future.

Oh my, more cows taken out of the supply chain means fewer baby steers and heifers in the future.

If you, along with the rest of the beef-consuming public, thought retail beef prices were high now — just wait for the next two years. To rebuild the cattle herd, and more specifically the breeding cow herd, fewer will be available for slaughter, further exacerbating a lower-than-average amount of beef available for marketing, causing subsequent higher beef prices. It truly is a simple matter of supply versus demand: We don’t have the supply in the face of continuing demand.

And that brings me to my question and possible curative actions. We, in the marketing and sales end of the beef game, can have little impact on the numbers of cattle coming to market. We just kind of have to take what is available and do our best. But with retail beef prices high, and forecast to remain high, what ingenious marketing programs can we devise to overcome what will surely be a consumer backlash?

Let’s be honest, there are other proteins out there that consumers can buy to substitute for beef. Dare I mention that chicken continues to grow in consumption? And maybe these drought-forced high beef prices will be the impetus for growth in pork sales, which have languished for years.

Do we simply sit back and wait for more beef to be produced knowing that such a scenario is going to take a few years? Or, do we become proactive? And just what would that be?

The worst thing we could do is sit on our haunches and wait for beef availability to come back. No — this is the time to aggressively advertise and market beef.

What, you say, advertise and stimulate demand in the face of less available product to sell? What marketing school did you go to?

We must be aggressive beef marketers to simply stem any consumer frustration with either prices or availability, or both. Why? Because consumers need good reasons to spend more for their beef. Besides, eventually the market will come back, and if you have done everything possible to not only curb demand reductions, but also build consumer loyalty, you will come out in an even better position than you were when the whole herd liquidation and subsequent beef availability thing started.

Sure, it is going to be expensive and only the bold will survive. This is the time when an old axiom of mine holds true: “Don’t tell me what can’t be done; tell me what can be done, and then go do it!”

In my experience, it is easy to find those who will tell you all the reasons why something is going to fail. Pay them no mind, and seek out those who will take the initiative to get something done by doing it. They are the future leaders of our industry.

What are we going to do NOW?!?

Join for free* to continue reading.